U.S. officers say that moves carried out on 3 key Iranian nuclear websites have devastated its nuclear program, however impartial mavens examining industrial satellite tv for pc imagery say the country’s long-running nuclear undertaking is a ways from destroyed.
“On the finish of the day there are some actually vital issues that have not been hit,” says Jeffrey Lewis, a professor on the Middlebury Institute of World Research at Monterey, who tracks Iran’s nuclear amenities. “If this ends right here, it is a actually incomplete strike.”
Specifically Lewis says the strike does not appear to have touched Iran’s shares of extremely enriched uranium.
“Nowadays, it nonetheless has that subject material and we nonetheless have no idea the place it’s,” he says.
“I believe it’s a must to suppose that vital quantities of this enriched uranium nonetheless exist, so this isn’t over whatsoever,” consents David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and World Safety, which has carefully tracked Iran’s nuclear program for years.
The impartial exams stand in stark distinction to congratulatory statements from the Trump Management within the wake of the moves.
The U.S. army performed its assault in opposition to Iran’s nuclear program early on Sunday, native time. Code-named “Operation Middle of the night Hammer,” the challenge concerned seven B-2 Spirit bombers wearing huge 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs referred to as Large Ordinance Penetrators.
Apparently {that a} dozen of the bombs have been used to strike Iran’s deeply buried enrichment web site at Fordo. Two guns have been extensively utilized to strike an underground centrifuge facility at Iran’s major enrichment web site in Natanz.
Concurrent with the bombings, a U.S. submarine introduced greater than two dozen cruise missiles. The ones guns hit constructions and tunnel entrances at a 3rd nuclear web site at Isfahan.
A satellite tv for pc symbol displays broken constructions on the Isfahan nuclear web site. The web site used to be struck by means of cruise missiles introduced from a U.S. submarine.
©2025 Maxar Applied sciences
conceal caption
toggle caption
©2025 Maxar Applied sciences
“Iran’s nuclear ambitions were obliterated,” Secretary of Protection Pete Hegseth stated all over a Pentagon press convention on Sunday. “The operation President Trump deliberate used to be daring and it used to be sensible.”
Each Lewis and Albright say that the moves themselves would possibly smartly were efficient, even supposing it’s tough to mention evidently. Satellite tv for pc imagery displays six deep holes within the flooring round Fordo, and ashy particles over a lot of the web site. Albright believes that bunker-busters have been used to check out and strike on the enrichment facility’s air flow device, along side the primary corridor the place uranium-enriching centrifuges have been stored.
“I believe the aim of the assault used to be to take out centrifuges and infrastructure they usually really feel they completed that,” Albright says.
However as proof that the moves could have ignored the uranium shares, each Albright and Lewis level to industrial satellite tv for pc imagery from the times earlier than the strike. The pictures display vehicles at two key websites — Isfahan and Fordo. The vehicles seem to be sealing tunnels that function entrances to underground amenities used to retailer uranium, most likely in anticipation of an American assault.
A picture provided by means of the Middlebury Institute of World Research at Monterey displays vehicles on the front of the Fordo enrichment facility the day earlier than a U.S. strike at the web site. Mavens consider Iran can have spirited away its provide of extremely enriched uranium upfront of the assaults.
Middlebury Institute of World Research at Monterey/Airbus Area and Protection
conceal caption
toggle caption
Middlebury Institute of World Research at Monterey/Airbus Area and Protection
Each mavens consider Iranians can have additionally moved their enriched uranium out of the websites within the run-up to the U.S. moves.
“There have been vehicles noticed in imagery it seems that hauling stuff away,” Albright says. “One would suppose that any enriched uranium shares have been hauled away.”
The World Atomic Power Company had assessed that Iran has greater than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium 235 — sufficient for round ten bombs, in keeping with impartial mavens. That 60% enriched uranium is carried in rather small bins that would have compatibility simply into automobiles, says Albright.
Even supposing Albright believes this system has been considerably set again, he thinks it might nonetheless be reconstituted.
Albright says Iran might also have 1000’s of uranium-enriching centrifuges that have been by no means put in in Natanz and Fordo. It could be conceivable to transport the uranium to any other, covert facility, the place it might be enriched to the specified 90% for a nuclear weapon in a rather brief time frame. Even then, Iran must take additional steps to type the uranium right into a weapon.
“This system has been critically set again, however there is a large number of odds and ends,” Albright says. In the long run he thinks the one technique to in reality finish Iran’s nuclear program is thru further nuclear inspections by means of world screens and cooperation from the Iranian regime, more than likely despite the fact that some roughly diplomatic settlement.
Lewis consents: “Even essentially the most sensible bombing marketing campaign, more than likely isn’t going to get us the place we need to be,” he says.
